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Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services. Economic literature: papers , articles , software , chapters , books. Registered: Alexander Dilger.
Dilger, Alexander, Handle: RePEc:zbw:umiodp as. The general request is the investment into renewables and how this decision process could be supported to assure the decision in an optimal way. It will be checked if the decisions in the European electricity industry with regards to the renewable energies are explainable by using the game theory approaches or not.
Pläne als konditionale Strategien: Ein Konzept für mögliche Kooperation im Gefangenendilemma
An introduction, the problem description respectively the objective and the methodology of the work are given in chapter 1. In order to achieve these objectives and to work on the problem description, a literature study is the main research method. In advance, there are several internet pages as well as magazine reports and actual newspaper articles used to expand the information sources. Consequently, in a first step all available information with a focus on decision finding, game theory, the energy market, and renewable energies are gathered, analyzed and concentrated to draw up an actual picture of the current status in the mentioned fields in chapter 2 and 3.
Based on relevant findings, chapter 4 describes the development of a decision making concept through a deduction of the theoretical parts to a practically utilizable questionnaire. The practical examples at the end of chapter 4 are chosen from current ongoing discussions to show how the developed process can be transposed. At the end, in chapter 5 the conclusion and an outlook are given.
As announced in the introductory part in chapter 1, this part is now dealing with the theory of decision making. It will provide the reader with a short introduction in the versatile area of making decisions. However, out of the multitude different approaches, this one is chosen which is linkable to the general topic of this thesis, so which is also of interest for the decision making procedure within the field of renewable energies. The techniques in this section help to make the best decisions possible with the available information at hand.
With these tools it is possible to map out the likely consequences of decisions, work out the importance of individual factors and choose the best course of action to take. Which course this is, depends on the problem arose as well who tries to solve it. Companies do have other goals than e.
Then, the last subchapter will focus on the game theory which was developed by the mathematicians John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern in the nineteen-forties and furthermore enhanced by John Nash in the nineteen-fifties. It can be stated that the decision theory is strongly linked to mathematic models. This thesis does not want to claim to be a mathematical thesis; therefore the theories are broken down to a minimum of technical formulas to secure a better understanding of this delicate matter. Figure 1 gives an overview about them: . On the one hand the prescriptive approach — literature describes it also as normative approach — is searching for decision rules and standards for rational action.
The whole approach tries to identify the best decision to take, assuming an ideal decision maker, who is fully informed, able to compute with perfect accuracy, and fully rational. Furthermore, the decision models — like the game theory — have their basis in this approach.
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On the other hand, the descriptive decision theory rather describes how people, who are in the decision phase are attempting to act and why they are acting in this certain way. In general, people do not behave in optimal ways as they do not have a perfect information level. Descriptive methods are used to create empirical based hypotheses about the behavior of the decision makers. These hypotheses are used to make for example predictions about further decision situations. Due to the fact that within the normative decision theory hypotheses are prepared for testing against actual behavior, these two approaches are closely linked.
Decisions are made every day by each single individual, as well as by organizational decision making groups. Basically, it is necessary to have a goal which has to be achieved and there has to be at least two action alternatives which could lead to different outcomes. Furthermore, it is important to know the actors which are involved as well as their objectives and policies and how their acting could influence the whole picture.
In addition to that, facts like the time frame, possible scenarios and constraints are of interest.
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For smaller decisions it is not necessary to write them down each time, but doing so for bigger or more important ones, yields to the fact that they are at hand. One of the main tasks is to characterize the decision problem throughout alternatives. As mentioned, there has to be a minimum of two different alternatives otherwise no decision is needed.
Die Spieltheorie : Nash und das Gefangenendilemma.
Those alternatives have to differ and have to be mutually exclusive, but in the end yield to the same result to fulfill the goal. One requirement is that they have to be achievable. This could be limited for instance by laws, funds, available capacity and other factors. The reasons for deciding for the one or the other alternative have to be balanced; risks have to be calculated and the best fitting alternative has to be chosen. The maximization of one alternative could for example the yield to an interference with the goal system.
This could require a reformulation of the goal with a higher focus on possible risks. The whole decision making theory can also be seen as a kind of life cycle, process or phase model which is described at full length in literature: Analyze a problem, think about alternatives, and realize one of the alternatives. The first step of the decision making process is the problem definition itself.
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In general, some symptoms result in an unsatisfied situation, which needs to be improved and analyzed and afterwards carefully defined as the problem. The more detailed it is known and understood, the better is the assessment of the alternatives as well as the choice of the optimum alternative at the end. Knowledge is powerful but it has also to be kept in mind, how to apply it to the whole process. The second step addresses the specification of the target system.
The alternatives which will be defined in the third step will be evaluated according to that system. A concretion of the system will also guide the evaluation of the action alternatives. The third step deals with the identification of possible alternatives, which will also include the restrictions, which are a kind of prevention to choose too much alternatives. A first measurement is that no alternatives should be looked at which cannot be realized at all due to financial issues, laws etc.
Thereby, the whole process will be much easier and also speed up. Furthermore, it has to be thought about further alternatives.
In general it is well advised to incorporate other persons in the readjustment process to get new ideas and different perceptions in order to improve the overall quality. At the end of this step, the alternatives will be checked by a prognosis of their potential to solve the recent problem. It is a kind of consequence estimation because all real decisions are made at an imperfect level of information. Every time it is a decision which is done with a certain kind of risk and uncertainty.
Step 4 is then the actual decision making, which means that someone has to choose one of the alternatives. In general, the decision maker takes this alternative which first of all will solve his target system but secondly, gives the best — or at least better than some of the others — result in reaching his goals. The last step then includes the realization phase. This means the chosen alternative will be implemented.
This includes further decisions about for example the time frame of the whole process, people who needs to be informed, action lists, etc. Going through such a process it is like other processes more a tool to systemize a topic in different phases, which should be finished one after another. Regarding this special decision making process, it should be kept in mind that there are high interdependencies between all the phases.
And in general it should not be seen as sequential and independent completion of one phase after the other it is more an interaction between them. In total this will help to reduce or simplify the complexity of the planning process. If there is no reasonable alternative left at the end it is also necessary to jump back to the beginning or to one of the firsts. Subsequent to the description of the decision making process, this subchapter deals with the more relevant theory for this thesis: the game theory.
Nevertheless, it is quite important to get an overview about the decision making in general to understand the more detailed game theory more easily. Game theory is a decision finding tool that can be used to analyze strategic problems like competitive situations, which could be setup with a multitude of variables.
This broad definition applies to most of the social sciences, but game theory in addition applies mathematical models to this interaction under the assumption that each person's behavior impacts the well-being of all other participants in the game. These models are often quite simplified abstractions of real-world interactions.
Furthermore, it is not an appropriate tool when the decision makers ignore the reactions or actions of the takers or use this information as impersonal market condition. A major issue within game theory is the necessity to make assumptions.